With the gubernatorial election still months away, polls are beginning to gauge Mainers' preliminary preferences. According to the results of a recent telephone survey, Independent candidate Eliot Cutler is gaining support, while the Republican nominee, Paul LePage, leads the race.

In an automated telephone survey of 500 likely Maine voters, Rasmussen Reports concludes that Republican gubernatorial candidate Paul Lepage is leading the pack with 39 percent of the vote, compared with 31 percent of Democratic candidate Libby Mitchell, and 15 percent of Independent Eliot Cutler. Three percent of those polled favor other candidates, and 12% remain undecided.

"At this point in the race, where we are, I think that's a respectable showing for each of them, and I think there's still some room to move there," says Mark Brewer a political science professor at the University of Maine. "My guess would be that LePage's support is, perhaps, the most solid of any of the candidates right now. He's got a number out there in the electorate that are diehard, rock solid LePage supporters. I think that's less true for Mitchell and for Cutler. That being said, I wonder how much room for growth LePage has."

Since the last Rasmussen poll was taken just after the primary, voter preferences have changed: Support for both LePage and Mitchell has declined, while Eliot Cutler has seen an increase.

Cutler's support more than doubled, from seven percent to 15 percent. LePage dropped four percentage points, from 43 to 39 percent, while Mitchell dropped 5 percentage points, from 36 percent to 31 percent.

Cutler campaign manager Ted O'Meara attributes the increase to a three-week television advertising campaign and increased voter interest in the candidates. "I think it's simply a function of people are paying more attention, they're more aware of Eliot, they're more aware of his name recognition, and I think people are really looking for something different this year."

But not everyone agrees. "I think the Rasmussen poll clearly indicates that this is a two-person race," says Jesse Connolly, Mitchell's campaign spokesman. "This race is clearly a choice between Paul LePage and Libby Mitchell. Libby has been out and about talking to voters. You know, we really believe that her message of creating jobs in our state and strenghening the economy is resonating with folks."

John Morris, LePage's chief of staff, issued a brief statement: "The results of the poll are encouraging and we will be working harder to increase that lead," he says.

Mark Brewer of UMaine says all polls are quick snapshots in time, and aren't meant to predict election results. And critics of Rasmussen Reports point out that their polls have tended to show more favorable results for Republican candidates.

MaryEllen FitzGerald, president of the Portland marketing firm, Critical Insights, says her concern is with accuracy of the automated method used by Rasmussen. A single, digitally-recorded voice conducts interviews with randomly-selected phone numbers.

"You never actually are sure who you have on the phone," she says. "So these automated polls come in and you're pushing a button and you can have the 12-year-old in the house who picks up the phone, as opposed to doing a random sampling and making sure that you have an appropriate representative who's a likely or registered voter."

FitzGerald also points out that automated polls usually happen once, during the evening, when many working people are not yet home or are working a night shift. Rasmussen argues that its automated polls ensure that every respondent hears exactly the same question, asked with the exact same inflection every single time.

The poll was taken on Wednesday, July 14th, between 5:00 and 9:00 p.m.