A new poll takes the temperature on how Mainers are feeling about the race for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Republican Olympia Snowe, same-sex marriage, and other issues after last week's primary. Analysts say even though particular candidates and issues show wide margins of support, nothing is certain for November's election. Patty Wight reports on what's hot, and what's not for voters right now in Maine.

Coming off the primary election, Mainers are giving the biggest thumbs up to same-sex marriage and Angus King. Five-hundred-six people were surveyed across Maine's counties, with a margin of error was 4.4 percent. Fifty percent of respondents said they would vote for independent candidate King to take Olympia Snowe's seat.

The other candidates had far less support: Twenty-three percent of respondents said they would vote for Republican candidate Charlie Summers, and nine percent said they would vote for Democratic candidate Cynthia Dill.

"That doesn't sound like a good place to start, but in a sense it means that you have more ground that you can gain," says Steve Koczela, president of MASSInc Polling Group, the company that conducted the poll for WBUR in Boston due to strong national interest in the Senate race.

"Cynthia Dill, for example--when you look at the percent who say that they either have heard of her and are undecided, or have never heard of her, or just couldn't answer the question, you have 71 percent of likely voters who fall into one of those three categories," Koczela says. "So she really has a long way that she could, potentially, go up."

"I'm certain that Dill's and Summer's numbers are going to move," says Ron Schmidt, a political science professor at the University of Southern Maine. "Not only are their campaigns going to be trying to define them to the public, but the national parties, who very much want that Senate seat, and also, I'm sure, national super PACS, are going to be advertising in the state."

Schmidt says King's strong numbers right now likely have a lot to do with name recognition. He's a former governor, after all, who had good approval ratings. Plus, Schmidt says, King has gotten a lot of positive attention in the media for the Senate race.
"So I think a lot of people probably associate him with the idea of a favorably received former governor."

University of Maine Political Science Professor Amy Fried says the reasons voters support King may run a little deeper. "In addition, I do think there are a number of Democrats who are very wary about a 2010 scenario, in which where there was a split between Eliot Cutler and the Democratic nominee Libby Mitchell leading to the election of Gov. LePage," Fried says.

That, says Fried, may encourage them to stick with the more known, popular candidate. One percent of poll respondents said they would support other Senate candidates not mentioned by name. Those include independents Andrew Ian Dodge, Danny Woods, Steve Dalton, and write-in Democratic candidate Benjamin Pollard.

The poll also asked voters whether they support same-sex marriage. Fifty-five percent of respondents supported, 36 percent opposed. That's a 19-point lead, and pollster Steve Koczela says he thinks the referundum will likely pass in November, given other poll results.

"Looking at the last three or four that have been done that have asked this question in a couple different ways, it's somewhere between 14 and 20 points supporting it, no matter how you ask about it," Koczela says.

But Ron Schmidt says he doesn't think a win for same-sex marriage is in the bag, and that wording does play a significant role. Last week there was a minor uproar on both sides of the issue when Secretary of State Charlie Summers released a draft of the referendum question. It asked simply if voters support same-sex marriage--and left out an explanation that religious groups would not be forced to practice gay marriage ceremonies.

"I think if the pollsters had worded their question the way Charlie Summers worded the question for the upcoming ballot, the numbers might have been different," Schmidt says. "And that gives you a sense of just how important the wording of initiatives on ballots really is."

The poll also checked out approval ratings for Gov. LePage, who had 40 percent approval, 49 percent disapproval. In the presidential race, it found Obama holds a 14-point lead in Maine over Republican challenger Mitt Romney.

But the jury is still out in Maine on the Affordable Care Act. Just under half of voters are undecided as to whether they support it, though those who have formed an opinion tend to believe it will make their health care more expensive.

View poll highlights here.