In less than two weeks, Mainers will head to the polls to decide whether to repeal Maine's new same-sex marriage law. Now some election watchers are saying that because new voter surveys show Mainers are equally divided over Question 1 on the ballot, the outcome of the vote hinges on which campaign gets its supporters to the polls -- and gay marriage proponents may be at a disadvantage.

It's not just an off-year election. It's an off-off-year election. And that means that on election day, there will be no presidential candidate at the top of the ticket, no congressional race, no governor's contest or even a contested legislative seat. Instead, the most prominent ballot issue is Question 1.

That question is followed by two tax reduction issues, a repeal of the state's school consolidation law, along with a question that would require the state to set up a distribution system for medicinal marijuana. All are rallying issues for conservative-minded voters who could wind up repealing the state's gay marriage law, as they stampede the polls in an election that some are predicting will produce a statewide turnout of 40 percent or less.

"The big question is, is how mobilized will people be who are most moved to vote on social issue quesitons, and what side has a better get-out-the-vote effort to get those people to the polls." says Tarren Bragdon of the conservative think tank known as the Maine Heritage Policy Center.

Bragdon says his organization is not taking a position on gay marriage. But he says there are plenty of right-leaning Maine voters who want to hold Democratic Gov. John Baldacci and majority Democrats in the Legislature responsible for policies they enacted, such as school consolidation and same-sex marriage.

And because more Republicans than Democrats appear to support ballot measures to control taxes and spending, Bragdon says election day may be the opportunity for pay back.

"This election is about the tax payer and the voter saying to elected officials, 'We want different rules of the game, and we may want those on specific bills that you have passed, or we may want to put a new set of parameters on you for tax and spending going forward,'" Bragdon says. "But absolutely, this is about voters saying to elected officials, 'No, we're going to redefine the parameters that we'll let you play in.'"

"If you're on the Yes on 1 side, you're on the conservative side of this question, and I think you've got to see it as a benefit," says Mark Brewer, a political science professor at the University of Maine. Brewer agrees that same-sex marriage supporters have their work cut out for them.

In addition to an expected small turnout and a ballot laced with issues like TABOR 2 that get conservatives excited, he says Maine's average voter tends to be older and perhaps less inclined to embrace the kind of social change associated with the gay marriage law.

"Conservatives have at least three -- and perhaps maybe even for some, the marijuana question -- perhaps four, but certainly three big issues that they're interested in," Brewer says. "You've got TABOR 2, you've got the excise tax question, then you've got same-sex marriage, whereas, yeah, liberals are interested in all those things too, but are they as highly interested? I'm not sure about that."

"You're going to have to have a significant amount of passion around this issue to get out and get to the polls," says Dean Debnam of the group Public Policy Polling. Last week, Public Policy Polling surveyed 1,130 likely Maine voters on the gay marriage question.

The Raleigh, North Carolina, firm found Mainers evenly divided on the issue, with 48 percent saying they would vote to overturn the law and 48 percent saying they would keep it on the books. Four percent of the sample was undecided in the poll, which had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percent.

"What's the bad news for the advocates of gay marriage is that one of your strongest passions is hatred and fear," Debnam says. "So that's going to play into the favor of the opponents of gay marriage."

Debnam says that one interesting aspect of the poll focuses on young voters between the ages of 18 and 29. Although 47 percent of those voters indicated they would vote to retain the gay marriage law, 45 percent said they would not, and the number of undecided voters in that group was double the state average at 8 percent. Debnam says that runs contrary to what he's seen in other states.

And it makes him wonder whether pro-gay marriage supporters will be able to get their young voters to the polls in an election that does not have a Barack Obama to energize the under-30 segment of Mainers.

"I think you always have an uphill battle trying to get young voters out to the polls, and I think, you know, of all segments of the population, they're the most apathetic about voting as a general rule, Debnam says. "So yes, I think it's going to be more of a problem to get them out, and I think the 8 percent does reflect an apathy, or reflects a lack of paying any attention to this issue."

Regardless of the poll, Mark Sullivan of the No on 1 campaign says his organization's campaign headquarters are literally filled with young volunteers. "We also have a very active program reaching out on the college campuses around the state, and particularly bringing those young people into the process, not only to vote, but to participate through volunteer actions."

"There's I think a false impression that young people are monolithically in favor of gay marriage," says Frank Schubert, a California-based consultant for Stand for Marriage Maine, the group trying to repeal gay marriage. He says young voters -- like those in other age segments -- tend to reflect the values of the families they grew up in and the communities in which they live.
Considering Maine's rural character, he expects there will be as many young people who vote against the gay marriage law as those voting for it. Both sides say they will make sure their young voters make it to the polls on Election Day.